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Medline ® Abstract for Reference 55

of 'Familial risk factors for pancreatic cancer and screening of high-risk patients'

"PancPro" as a tool for selecting families eligible for pancreatic cancer screening: an Italian study of incident cases.
Leonardi G, Marchi S, Falconi M, Zerbi A, Ussia V, de Bortoli N, Mosca F, Presciuttini S, Del Chiaro M
Dig Liver Dis. 2012 Jul;44(7):585-8. Epub 2012 Jan 26.
BACKGROUND: PancPRO is a computer program that estimates the risk of pancreatic cancer for asymptomatic individuals based on a genetic model of susceptibility and the familial incidence of cancer.
AIM: To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer.
RESULTS: The 570 risk values were included between 1% and 13%. The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk=7.5%. Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3%) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age>40 years.
CONCLUSIONS: PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.
Gastroenterology Unit, Pisa University Hospital, Italy. giulialeonardi@alice.it